ICYMI: “Sky-High” Black Turnout Fueled Ossoff, Warnock Victories

ATLANTA – On January 5, both Republican and Democratic voter turnout shattered Georgia runoff records, and both parties’ turnout exceeded that of any previous Georgia election other than November’s presidential race. Despite Donald Trump’s rhetoric, white voters also turned out in record numbers; however, Black voters turned out in the highest numbers. It was not the case that Republican voters or Trump voters or white voters failed to turn out. They did, strongly. But turnout among Black Democratic voters exploded, sealing victories for Senators Ossoff and Warnock.

A collection of analyses follows:

• “Sky-high turnout among Black voters powered a pair of Democrats to Senate victories in Georgia, reshaping the balance of power in Washington as President-elect Joe Biden takes office. … But voters say the victories of Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock also highlight the important role Black Georgians play in Democratic politics, and the growing sway they’ll have on the party in the future.” (WaPo, 01/06/2021)
• “More than any other factor, the high turnout from Black voters in Georgia’s Senate runoff elections appears to have won Democrats Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff their seats and their party control of the US Senate.” (Vox, 01/06/2021)
• “It was a historic night: Georgia made Warnock the second Black senator from the South since Reconstruction. The big reason, according to Twitter’s most widely followed election analysts, was the remarkable level of Black turnout. Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, who has also declared victory for both Democrats, called the figures “phenomenal.”” (Vox, 01/06/2021)
• “Black Georgia voters showed up in droves for the state’s pair of US Senate runoffs and voting rights groups say the high turnout plus aggressive organizing efforts helped solidify a historic win.” (CNN, 01/06/2021)
• “… Black voters were a force in the early vote and on Election Day. Notably, it wasn’t just in metro Atlanta, but also in rural and small-town counties across South Georgia, where Black turnout has historically lagged. That means it was an alliance spanning from the most affluent Black residents of Atlanta, including recent transplants to Georgia, to those Black Georgia natives who hail from the most economically depressed pockets of the state.” (AP, 01/06/2021)
• “Black runoff turnout was phenomenal and the [Donald] Trump base just couldn’t keep up,” the political analyst Dave Wasserman tweeted shortly after being one of the first to call the race for Warnock.” (The Guardian, 01/07/2021)
• “Black voters in the state were the deciding force in both Democratic victories, particularly in urban and rural communities with large Black populations.” (The Guardian, 01/07/2021)
• “Roughly 93% of Black voters supported Ossoff and Warnock. Ossoff earned 92% of Black voters in Tuesday’s contest compared with 87% in November. According to NBC data, Warnock won 92% of Black voters against Loeffler.” (The Guardian, 01/07/2021)
• “For Georgia activists, Black voters flipping the state and reclaiming Democratic control of the Senate reinforces African Americans’ influence in the conservative south when they show up to the polls.” (The Guardian, 01/07/2021)
• “Far more people of both parties voted than usual in a runoff, but the Democratic turnout was stronger, largely because of Black voters.” (NYT, 01/08/2021)
• “Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock prevailed in Georgia with the help of superior Democratic turnout, especially among Black Georgians … Democrats benefited from a more favorable electorate, as a greater proportion of Democrats and especially Black voters returned to the polls.” (NYT, 01/08/2021)
• “A majority of Georgia’s Democratic voters are Black — they are roughly 30 percent of the overall electorate — and it was these voters who drove the stronger Democratic turnout. Over all, turnout reached 93 percent of 2020 levels in precincts where Black voters represented at least 80 percent of the electorate.” (NYT, 01/08/2021)
• “In any election, it can be hard to decide whether to frame the result as a strong turnout from one side as opposed to a weak one from the other. In this election, it is easier to argue that the Black and Democratic turnout was strong rather than to say that the Republican turnout was weak. Republican turnout was extremely strong for a runoff election; had analysts been told of G.O.P. turnout in advance, most would have assumed the Republicans were on track to win.” (NYT, 01/08/2021)
• “Democratic gains were concentrated in the relatively Black and Democratic areas where superior Democratic turnout overwhelmed Republican support. Democrats made their largest gains in the predominantly Black counties of the so-called Black Belt — a region named for its fertile soil but now associated with the voters whose ancestors were enslaved to till it — as well as the growing majority-Black suburbs south of Atlanta.” (NYT, 01/08/2021)
• “In fact, the share of Black Georgians in the January runoff was on par with the November election, when they played an important role in flipping the presidential vote to Biden. State data suggest that Ossoff won a greater share of Black voters from outside the liberal Atlanta metro area than he did in the November election, which can be partially credited for his narrow victory.” (WaPo, 01/06/2021)
• “The AP VoteCast survey of more than 2,700 verified Georgia voters found that Black voters made up 32% of the electorate — more than the 29% they were in November. And those voters opted overwhelmingly for the Democrats, by margins of 93% or more.” (Bloomberg, 01/06/2021)
• “Turnout was high in general, hitting more than 80 percent of the turnout in the November general election. But turnout rates were slightly higher in Democratic strongholds (north of 90 percent in general) and especially in predominantly Black precincts. Those margins, especially in populous and heavily Black Fulton and DeKalb counties, were decisive for the Democrats.” (Vox, 01/06/2021)
• “Looks like strong Black turnout is what’s powering Democrats to likely victories in both Senate races. Counties that are <10% Black barely shifted from the general election to the runoff. But majority Black counties shifted 4 percentage points left on average. [graph of GA Senate Margin Shift vs. Percent Black]” (Ryan Matsumoto on Twitter, 01/06/2021)
• “Black voters showed up in record numbers for Georgia’s Senate runoff election on Tuesday, handing the Democratic Senate candidates the Rev Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff decisive victories against the Republican incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively. According to the Associated Press, more than 4.4m votes were cast, about 88% of the number who voted in November’s contest, when turnout was 68% overall.” (The Guardian, 01/07/2021)
• “President-elect Joe Biden owes his upcoming Senate majority to game-changing turnout Tuesday by African American voters across Georgia, according to Axios’ analysis of state election data. The big picture: Turnout in runoff elections usually pales in comparison to general elections. This time, in every Georgia county, the number of votes cast Tuesday was at least 80% of the turnout in November. In Randolph County, which is 62% Black, turnout was 96%. By the numbers: Half of the top-10 highest-turnout counties compared to November were majority Black counties. At least a third of the population was Black in seven of those counties.” (Axios, 01/08/2021)
• “Warnock’s ability to connect with Black voters probably also played a role. … Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida who has closely tracked turnout, said Warnock’s candidacy contributed to the surge in the Black vote. “The fact that Warnock was on the ballot gave extra incentive for African Americans to show up and vote and support him. And Ossoff undoubtedly benefited from some of that,” he said.” (WaPo, 01/06/2021)
• “Bullock [a professor of political science at the University of Georgia] said Warnock had also driven Black voters to the polls because his win is historic.” (CNN, 01/06/2021)
• “Black-led voting groups spent the last six weeks knocking on millions of doors, registering voters, distributing mailers, hosting events and partnering with Atlanta hip-hop artists to expand their reach. Their efforts came as Atlanta was thrust into the national spotlight following Biden’s victory that flipped Georgia blue after he won the state by more than 11,000 votes. In the days leading up to the Senate runoffs, Black women such as Stacey Abrams and LaTosha Brown once again emerged as the leading voices, appearing on social media, national television and bus tours to urge Black people to vote.” (CNN, 01/06/2021)
• “Organizers say get-out-the-vote efforts increased participation from Black voters who didn’t vote in November or may not have otherwise voted in a runoff. Nse Ufot, CEO of the New Georgia Project, said this momentum made it hard for Black voters to ignore their significance to the Democratic party. Black voters, she said, also recognized the high stakes: if Democrats win both seats, they take control of the US Senate.” (CNN, 01/06/2021)
• “Many voting rights activists say Georgia’s increasing diversity has created a path to victory for Democrats. The number of Black voters has grown considerably in the past two decades and represented a third of the state’s electorate in 2019, according to the Pew Research Center.” (CNN, 01/06/2021)
• “Charles Bullock, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia, said in early voting, the Black vote was “especially powerful.” He said Black voters have been more enthusiastic in part because campaign efforts, including in-person contacts, have increased compared to the presidential election. “One of most effective ways to get someone to vote is to have a supporter come and knock on your door and say, ‘Please go vote,'” Bullock said.” (CNN, 01/06/2021)
• “Strong Black turnout, motivated by years of organizing by groups such as the New Georgia Project, and Trump’s discouraging rhetoric about voter fraud made the difference in handing both Georgia Senate runoffs — and therefore control of the U.S. Senate — to the Democrats.” (WaPo, 01/29/2021)